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Gross Domestic Product GDP Estimates 1st Quarter (Apr-Jun) 2019-20

Aug 30, 2019: The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2019-20, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

2. The details of estimates of GDP for Q1 of 2019-20 are presented below:

I (a) Estimates at Constant (2011-12) Prices

3. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at ₹ 35.85 lakh crore, as against ₹ 34.14 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 5.0 percent. Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at Constant (2011-12) Prices for Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at ₹ 33.48 lakh crore, as against ₹ 31.90 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 4.9 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

4. The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q1 of 2019-20 over Q1 of 2018-19 are ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting’ and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services’. The growth in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Construction’ and ‘Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services’ is estimated to be 2.0 percent, 2.7 percent, 0.6 percent, 5.7 percent, and 5.9 percent, respectively, during this period.

5. Industry analysis

The first quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Rabi season of 2018-19 (which ended in June 2019) obtained from the Department of Agriculture, Cooperation & Farmers Welfare, for Livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for Milk, Egg, Meat and Wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry & Dairying and Fish production data from Department of Fisheries have been used.

Index of Industrial Production (IIP); monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period April-June 2019-20 have been used. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue. Performance of key sectors like Transport including Railways, Road, Air and Water Transport etc., Communication, Banking and Insurance during the period April-June 2019-20 has been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the Corporate sector during April-June 2019-20 based on data received from BSE / NSE has been taken into account.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

5.1 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector grew by 2.0 percent as compared to growth of 5.1 percent in Q1 2018-19. The crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 53 percent, the livestock products 32 percent and forestry & fisheries 15 percent share of GVA in ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector.

Mining and Quarrying

5.2. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector grew by 2.7 percent as compared to growth of 0.4 percent in Q1 2018-19. The key indicators of Mining sector, namely, Production of Coal, Crude Oil & Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered growth rates of 2.7 percent, (-) 6.8 percent, (-)0.5 percent and 3.0 percent respectively, during Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 12.9 percent, (-) 2.4 percent, 0.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, during Q1 of 2018-19.

Manufacturing

5.3 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector grew by 0.6 percent as compared to growth of 12.1 percent in Q1 2018-19. The growth of organised sector (which has a share of more than 75 percent in the Manufacturing sector) was estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE. The Quasi-Corporate and Unorganized segment (which has a share of more than 20 percent in the Manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of Manufacturing. IIP Manufacturing registered growth rate of 3.2 percent during Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 5.1 percent during Q1 of 2018-19.

Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services

5.4 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector grew by 8.6 percent as compared to growth of 6.7 percent in Q1 2018-19. The key indicator of this sector, namely IIP of Electricity, registered growth rate of 7.2 percent during Q1 2019-20 as compared to 4.9 percent in Q1 2018-19.

Construction

5.5 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 5.7 percent as compared to growth of 9.6 percent in Q1 2018-19. Key indicators of Construction sector, namely, production of Cement, consumption of finished Steel and IIP of Non-Metallic Minerals registered growth rates of 1.2 percent, 6.8 percent and (-)1.1 percent respectively, during Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 16.3 percent, 9.2 percent and 12.3 percent, respectively, in Q1 of 2018-19.

Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting

5.6. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from this sector grew by 7.1 percent as compared to growth of 7.8 percent in Q1 2018-19. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the Sales Tax growth. With the introduction of GST, Sales Tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on Sales Tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annex to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30th November, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from Hotels and Restaurant sector is the Private Corporate growth in this sector. Among the other Services sectors, the key indicators of Railways, namely, the Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth rates of 0.9 percent and (-) 0.5 percent respectively during Q1 2019-20. In case of other Transport sectors, Passengers Handled by the Civil Aviation, Cargo Handled by the Civil Aviation and Cargo Handled at Major Sea Ports registered growth rates of (-) 0.6 percent, (-) 6.6 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, during Q1 2019-20. Sales of Commercial Vehicles registered (-) 9.5 percent growth during Q1 2019-20.

Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services

5.7 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from this sector grew by 5.9 percent as compared to growth of 6.5 percent in Q1 2018-19. Major component of this industry is the Real Estate and Professional Services which has a share of 75.5 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for Real Estate, Business Services and Computer related activities which are estimated from available data from Listed Companies. The other indicators of this sector, viz. Aggregate Bank Deposits and Bank Credits have shown growth rates of 10.4 percent and 11.9 percent, respectively, during Q1 2019-20 as compared to 6.8 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively, during Q1 2018-19.

Public Administration, Defence and Other Services

5.8 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from this sector grew by 8.5 percent as compared to growth of 7.5 percent in Q1 2018-19. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government Revenue Expenditure net of Interest payments grew by 8.7 percent during Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 6.0 percent in Q1 of 2018-19. Taxes on products grew by 5.3 percent in Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 10.2 percent in Q1 of 2018-19.

(b) Estimates at Current Prices

6. GDP at Current Prices in Q1 2019-20 is estimated at ₹48.93 lakh crore, as against ₹45.31 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 8.0 percent. GVA at Basic Price at Current Prices in Q1 2019-20, is estimated at ₹45.14 lakh crore, as against ₹41.82 lakh crore in Q1 2018- 19, showing an increase of 7.9 percent. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ (7.9 percent), ‘Mining and Quarrying’ (5.5 percent), ‘Manufacturing’ (2.0 percent), ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ (8.7 percent) ‘Construction’ (8.6 percent), 'Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication' (10.7 percent), 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services' (6.4 percent), and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services' (14.0 percent).

(c) Price Indices used as deflators

7. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the groups - Food Articles, Minerals, Manufactured Products, Electricity and all Commodities have risen by 6.9 percent, 19.4 percent, 1.4 percent, 0.03 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, during Q1 of 2019-20 as against 1.5 percent, 11.0 percent, 3.8 percent, 5.6 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, in Q1 2018-19. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.1 percent during Q1 2019-20 over Q1 2018- 19.


II Estimates of Expenditures on GDP

8. The components of expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, Consumption Expenditure and Capital Formation, are measured at Market Prices. The aggregates are presented in the following paragraphs.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at ₹28.25 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20 as against ₹ 26.60 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the PFCE is estimated at ₹ 19.74 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20 as against ₹ 19.14 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices during Q1 2019-20 are estimated at 57.7 percent and 55.1 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.7 percent and 56.1 percent, respectively, in Q1 2018-19.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at ₹6.07 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20 as against ₹5.41 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19. At Constant (2011- 12) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at ₹4.22 lakh crore in Q1 of 2019-20 as against ₹3.88 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices during Q1 2019-20 are estimated at 12.4 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 11.9 percent and 11.4 percent, respectively, in Q1 2018-19.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at Current Prices is estimated at ₹14.55 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20 as against ₹13.59 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at ₹11.66 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20 as against ₹11.21 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices during Q1 2019-20 are estimated at 29.7 percent and 32.5 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.0 percent and 32.8 percent, respectively, in Q1 2018-19.

12. Estimates of GVA at Basic Prices by kind of Economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q1 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 at Constant (2011-2012) and Current Prices, are given in Statements 1 to 4.

13. The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter July-September, 2019 (Q2 2019-20) will be on 29.11.2019.


STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN
Q1 (APRIL - JUNE) OF 2019-20
(at 2011-2012 Prices)

QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN  Q1 (APRIL - JUNE) OF 2019-20


STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN
Q1 (APRIL - JUNE) OF 2019-20
(at 2011-2012 prices)

QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN Q1 (APRIL - JUNE) OF 2019-20


STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN
Q1 (APRIL - JUNE) OF 2019-20
(at Current Prices)

QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN Q1 (APRIL - JUNE) OF 2019-20


STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN
Q1 (APRIL - JUNE) OF 2019-20
(at Current Prices)

QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN Q1 (APRIL - JUNE) OF 2019-20





Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

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