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[FY 2017-18] 2nd Advance Estimates Of National Income & 3rd Quarter GDP Estimates

Feb 28, 2018: Second Advance Estimates of National Income, 2017-18 and Quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Third quarter (Oct-Dec), 2017-18.

1. The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the Second Advance estimates of national income at constant (2011-12) and current prices for the financial year 2017-18. These are presented in Statements 1- 4.


2. Quarterly estimates of GDP for the third quarter October-December (Q3), 2017-18 both at constant (2011-12) and current prices along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP are also being released. Quarterly estimates of previous years along with the first and second quarter estimates of 2017-18 released earlier have undergone revision in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts. The first three quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2 and Q3. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2017-18 is estimated at INR 32.50 lakh crore, as against INR 30.32 lakh crore in Q3 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 7.2 percent. GDP growth rates for Q1 and Q2 of 2017-18 at constant prices are 5.7 percent and 6.5 percent respectively. Quarterly estimates for the years 2015-16, 2016-17, and 2017-18 are presented in Statements 5 to 8.

3. GDP growth rates for 2017-18 and Q1, Q2, Q3 of 2017-18 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given below:

4. The Second Advance Estimates of GDP have been released in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts. The approach for compiling the advance estimates is based on benchmark-indicator method. The Sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolation of  indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production of first 9 months of the financial year, (ii) financial performance of listed companies in the private corporate sector available upto quarter ending December, 2017 (ii) Second advance estimates of crop production, (iii) accounts of  Central & State Governments, information on indicators like deposits & credits, passenger and freight earnings of railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major sea ports, sales of commercial vehicles etc. available for first 9/10 months of the financial year. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation include non-GST revenue and GST revenue. For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes. Annual forecast of indicators which are available for first 9/10 months is based on regression using seasonal dummies to account for seasonal fluctuations. Some indicators like IIP have been compiled by dividing the cumulative value for the first 9 months of the current financial year by average of ratio of cumulative value of 9 months to the annual value of past years.

I. SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2017-18

ESTIMATES AT CONSTANT (2011-12) PRICES

Gross Domestic Product

5. Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of  INR 130.04 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2016-17 of INR 121.96 lakh crore, released on 31st January 2018. The growth in GDP during 2017-18 is estimated at 6.6 percent as compared to the growth rate of 7.1 percent in 2016-17.

Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices

6. Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from INR 112.48 lakh crore in 2016-17 to INR 119.64 lakh crore in 2017-18. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2017-18 is 6.4 percent as against 7.1 percent in 2016-17.

7. The sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7.0 percent are ‘public administration, defence and other services’,‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ and 'financial, real estate and professional services’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘manufacturing’, and ‘construction’ is estimated to be 3.0 percent, 3.0 percent, 5.1 per cent and 4.3 percent respectively.

8. Industry analysis

Agriculture 

8.1. The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth rate of 3.0 percent in its GVA during 2017-18, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 6.3 percent. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the Second Advance Estimates of production of food grains for 2017-18. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), the production growth of food grains during the agriculture year 2017-18 was 0.9 percent as compared to 9.4 percent in the previous agriculture year. Crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 59.0 percent of GDP in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector. Around 41.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which is expected to register a combined growth of around 5.1 percent in 2017-18.

Mining and quarrying

8.2. The growth in the GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector is estimated to be 3.0 percent as compared to growth of 13.0 percent in 2016-17. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas registered growth rates of 1.3 percent, (-)0.4 percent, 3.4 percent during April-December, 2017-18 as compared to 1.5 percent, (-)3.2 percent and  (-)3.3 percent during April-December, 2016-17. IIP mining grew by 2.8 percent in April-December, 2017-18 as against 4.3 percent in April-December, 2016-17.  The private corporate sector growth in the mining sector was estimated using the latest available information on major listed companies during first nine months of the financial year 2017-18.

Manufacturing

8.3. The growth in the GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from‘manufacturing’ sector is estimated to be 5.1 percent as compared to growth of 7.9 percent in 2016-17. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of around 70 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated using available data of major listed companies was 8.1 percent at current prices during  April-December 2017-18. GVA from quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which has a share of around 21.0 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP from manufacturing sector registered a growth rateof 3.8 percent during April-December 2017-18. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the manufactured products registered a growth of 2.6 percent during April-December, 2017-18 as compared to 0.7 percent during April-December, 2016-17.

Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services

8.4. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from ‘Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector is estimated to grow by 7.3 percent as compared to growth of 9.2 percent in 2016-17. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 5.1 percent during April-December, 2017-18 as compared to growth of 6.3 percent during April-December, 2016-17.

Construction

8.5. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from ‘Construction’ sector is estimated to grow by 4.3 percent as compared to growth of 1.3 percent in 2016-17. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 2.7 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, during April-December, 2017-18 as compared to 2.8 percent and 3.6 percent respectively, during April-December 2016-17.

Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting 

8.6. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from this sector is estimated to grow by 8.3 percent as compared to growth of 7.2 percent in 2016-17. GVA from Trade sector is estimated using an index of turnover based on Sales tax. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on sales tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annexure to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30th November, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of 5.6 per cent and (-)0.4 percent respectively during April-December 2017-18. In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major sea ports registered growth rates of 15.2 percent, 18.0 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, during April-December of 2017-18. Sales of commercial vehicles registered 15.2 percent growth during April-December of 2017-18.

Financial, real estate and professional services

8.7. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from this sector is estimated to grow by 7.2 percent as compared to growth of 6.0 percent in 2016-17. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 72.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which were estimated from latest available information on listed companies for the first nine months of 2017-18. As per available information as on February, 2018, key indicators of banking sector viz. aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 5.7 percent and 11.0 percent, respectively. 

Public administration, defence and other services

8.8. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from this sector is estimated to grow by 10.1 percent as compared to growth of 10.7 percent in 2016-17. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union government revenue expenditure net of interest payments and subsidies grew by 16.7 percent during April-December, 2017-18 as compared to 21.8 percent in April-December, 2016-17.

Per Capita Income

9. The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of INR 86,689 as compared to INR 82,229 for the year 2016-17. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.4 percent during 2017-18, as against 5.7 per cent in the previous year.

10. Price indices used as deflators

The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups food articles, minerals, manufactured products and all commodities, has risen by 2.3 percent, 7.3 percent, 2.6 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively during April-December, 2017-18. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 3.3 percent during April-December, 2017-18.

B. ESTIMATES AT CURRENT PRICES 

Gross Domestic Product 

11. GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in the year 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of INR 167.52 lakh crore, as against INR 152.54 lakh crore in 2016-17 showing a growth rate of 9.8 percent.

National Income

12. The nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as national income (at current prices) is likely to be INR 148.40 lakh crore during 2017-18, as against INR 134.93 lakh crore for the year 2016-17. In terms of growth rates, the net national income registered a growth rate of 10.0 percent in 2017-18 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 11.0 percent.

Per Capita Income

13. The per capita net national income during 2017-18 is estimated to be INR 112,764 showing a rise of 8.6 percent as compared  to  INR 1,03,870 during 2016-17.


II.  ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF FINAL EXPENDITURES OF GDP, 2017-18

14. Along with the second advance estimates of GVA at basic prices by economic activity, the second advance estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2011-12) prices are also released. These estimates have been compiled using the data from the same sources as those used for compiling GVA estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and expenditure of Central and State Government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

15. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at INR 98.59 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against INR 90.05 lakh crore in 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at INR 72.25 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against INR 68.12 lakh crore in 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 58.9 per cent and 55.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.0 per cent and 55.9 per cent, respectively in 2016-17.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

16. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at INR 19.06 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against INR 16.64 lakh crore in 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at INR 14.00 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against INR 12.62 lakh crore in 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 11.4 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 10.9 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively in 2016-17.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

17. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at INR 47.73 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against INR 43.52 lakh crore in 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at INR 40.87 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against INR 37.98 lakh crore in 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 28.5 percent and 31.4 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.5 percent and 31.1 percent, respectively in 2016-17. The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 9.7 percent at current prices and 7.6 percent at constant prices during 2017-18.

18. Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures of GDP for the years 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18, at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.


III. QUARTERLY ESTIMATES  OF GDP FOR THE THIRD QUARTER (OCTOBER-DECEMBER) OF 2017-18

(a) Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices

19. The first three quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2 and Q3. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2017-18 is estimated at INR 32.50 lakh crore, as against INR 30.32 lakh crore in Q3 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 7.2 percent. GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2017-18 is estimated at INR 30.11 lakh crore, as against INR 28.21 lakh crore in Q3 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 6.7 percent.

20. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’(4.1 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (-0.1 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (8.1 percent), ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ (6.1 percent) ‘construction’ (6.8 percent), ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting' (9.0 percent), 'financial, real estate and professional services' (6.7 percent), and ‘Public administration, defence and Other Services' (7.2 percent).

21. The estimated growth in the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity are 0.8 percent, 7.1 percent and 3.8 percent respectively, in Q3 of 2017-18.

22. The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 8.6 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively in Q3 of 2017-18, as against the growth rates of (-)4.7 percent and (-)0.1 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles and cargo handled at major ports, registered growth rates of 33.9 percent and 4.0 percent respectively in Q3 of 2017-18.

23. The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2017-18 are estimated at INR 19.19 lakh crore and INR 10.52 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of  PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2017-18 is 59.1 percent and 32.4 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.9 percent and 31.0 percent, respectively in Q3 of 2016-17. GFCE at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2017-18 is estimated at INR 3.23 lakh crore as against INR 3.04 lakh crore in Q3 of 2016-17. The rate of GFCE as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2017-18 is 9.9 percent as against the corresponding rate of 10.0 percent in Q3 of 2016-17.

(b) Estimates at current prices

24. GDP at current prices in Q3 of 2017-18 is estimated at INR 43.09 lakh crore, as against INR 38.50 lakh crore in Q3 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 11.9 percent. GVA at current basic prices in Q3 of 2017-18 is estimated at INR 38.98 lakh crore, as against INR 35.18 lakh crore in Q3 of 2016-17, showing a growth of 10.8 percent.

25. The PFCE and GFCF at current prices in Q3 of 2017-18 are estimated at INR 26.51 lakh crore and INR 12.37 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2017-18 are estimated at 61.5 percent and 28.7 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 62.6 percent and 27.9 percent, respectively in Q3 of 2016-17. GFCE at current prices in Q3 of 2017-18 is estimated at INR 4.47 lakh crore as against INR 4.04 lakh crore in Q3 of 2016-17. The rate of GFCE as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2017-18 is 10.4 percent as against the corresponding rate of 10.5 percent in Q3 of 2016-17.

26. Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity, expenditures on GDP  for Second Advance  Estimates, third quarter (Q3) & April-December estimates for the years 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 12.

27. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter January-March, 2018 (Q4 of 2017-18) and provisional annual estimates for the year 2017-18 will be on 31.05.2018.


STATEMENTS 1 TO 12 ARE AVAILABLE HERE - .pdf

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